Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 22.763963 24.817978 27.051049 29.672878 32.684603 36.057498 40.151146
2025-08-17 19.436692 22.206108 25.437670 29.540852 34.692023 41.058109 49.708789
2025-08-24 17.050856 20.169342 24.008766 29.195616 36.206028 45.652596 59.925457
2025-08-31 15.331497 18.635834 22.881589 28.918082 37.610121 50.271088 71.446031
2025-09-07 14.010211 17.408215 21.929712 28.641033 38.853234 54.821109 84.279110
2025-09-14 12.997582 16.454155 21.193835 28.500644 40.189889 59.731741 99.496601
2025-09-21 12.102133 15.557559 20.415413 28.149045 41.073040 64.025821 115.318728
2025-09-28 11.735061 15.355285 20.595049 29.261968 44.540045 73.843108 148.195651
2025-10-05 11.090345 14.689759 20.005786 29.040426 45.597413 79.253948 173.873813
2025-10-12 10.552942 14.136062 19.528342 28.929953 46.816848 85.344498 206.074499
2025-10-19 10.180762 13.798573 19.351623 29.301573 49.021617 94.371119 256.427969
2025-10-26 9.733280 13.312327 18.890920 29.104416 50.024807 100.832646 305.049452
2025-11-02 9.306410 12.839645 18.428968 28.879606 50.998395 107.807734 367.682055
2025-11-09 8.964768 12.480364 18.128363 28.926046 52.599963 117.311846 463.401640
2025-11-16 8.600233 12.062243 17.695838 28.668673 53.462873 125.070001 570.276016
2025-11-23 8.270145 11.680410 17.297135 28.432996 54.340517 133.386511 712.644869
2025-11-30 7.963863 11.320223 16.910160 28.178121 55.128899 141.896063 900.964718
2025-12-07 7.700104 11.015786 16.600204 28.047948 56.221430 152.257177 1188.844697
2025-12-14 7.425341 10.678938 16.209734 27.707544 56.695450 160.550152 1537.655878
2025-12-21 7.367256 10.702131 16.472109 28.796215 61.380806 190.703324 3062.844723
2025-12-28 7.139224 10.423924 16.158689 28.580466 62.259342 203.704458 4722.044968
2026-01-04 6.939604 10.185262 15.904471 28.472838 63.456932 219.649177 8399.899239
2026-01-11 6.809425 10.060516 15.857351 28.835994 66.230250 247.735935 25815.319634